I see your 7 and I raise you 1 ... while LD27 was rated by the IRC as R +8.9, 2022 AZ House elections went another way, with Fontes winning in the district, Kelly close, and the Dem House candidate coming within less than 4 points with essentially no backing and against well-known opponents. This year the R candidates there are less known, and the D candidate, Deborah Howard, is actively campaigning. I'd say this one should now be considered a swing district. CEBV includes it in their lists, and I do too.
I'll think about it further but I think that you may have gotten all of the plausible swing districts other than 27. Still surprises are always possible ...
Well done, gang. This gives us a few LDs to keep an eye on.
I see your 7 and I raise you 1 ... while LD27 was rated by the IRC as R +8.9, 2022 AZ House elections went another way, with Fontes winning in the district, Kelly close, and the Dem House candidate coming within less than 4 points with essentially no backing and against well-known opponents. This year the R candidates there are less known, and the D candidate, Deborah Howard, is actively campaigning. I'd say this one should now be considered a swing district. CEBV includes it in their lists, and I do too.
Ah the Rivero district? Dems got a single shot so maybe it’ll make the updated list. What are your other outside chance districts?
I'll think about it further but I think that you may have gotten all of the plausible swing districts other than 27. Still surprises are always possible ...
Yes, indeed. LD 27 has a shot of taking the House seat.
LD13- you missed a Candidate https://www.codyforazld13.com/