The hot House races
Eat your heart out, Cook.
Our ratings of state Senate races this week was so popular that we decided to rush delivery of our ratings of state House races.
In case you missed it, we’re ripping off Cook Political Report’s nonpartisan ratings of competitive races to give you a preview of where the real fights for the state Legislature will happen this year, and how those might shake out.
But state House races are more difficult to predict.
That’s because voters in each of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts elect two representatives (and one sentator). That pick-two dynamic in the House race ensures a certain amount of chaos and unpredictability — even in a blood-red district or a solid Democratic district, there’s always potential for a few surprises to slip in.
And that pick-two style race makes it harder to simply label a race with “Leans” Democrat or Republican.
Instead, we’re using the categories of “Likely Pickup” for Democrats or Republicans, “Potential Pickup,” or a “No Change” district, meaning we expect the party (or parties) holding the district’s two House seats to stay the same.
If our ratings are correct1 parties will swap a few seats and end up exactly where they started, with 29 Democrats and 31 Republicans.2
Now, let’s get to the races.3
LD2: Wilmeth & Bradshaw vs. Simacek
Rating: No Change
Currently: Split district
North Phoenix’s Legislative District 2 is one of only a handful of districts currently represented by both a Republican and a Democrat in the House.
And we’re betting it stays that way.
Republican Rep. Justin Wilmeth is running for re-election, joined by political newcomer Ari Bradshaw, who owns an advertising business and also picks a decent banjo.
Democrat Stephanie Simacek, a teacher and Deer Valley Unified school board member, is running as the sole Democrat seeking one of the two seats. That “single-shot” campaign has helped Democrats make inroads in Republican-leaning districts like this in the past. But it also means there’s no chance Democrats actually increase their numbers in the Legislature by winning here.
As a newcomer, Simacek will have her work cut out for her. But she’s running on a slate with the district’s current Democratic Representative, Judy Schwiebert, and Democrats will pour enormous resources into keeping the seat.
We’re going with No Change.
LD4: Gress & Carter vs. Butler & Gresham
Rating: No Change
Currently: Split district
Both Republican Rep. Matt Gress and former Democratic Rep. Kelli Butler are known entities in this central Phoenix district.
Gress was first elected in 2022 after serving as former Gov. Doug Ducey’s budget chief.
Butler served the area in the Legislature from 2016 through 2020 before being elected to the Maricopa Community College District Governing Board. She was drafted into this year’s race when current Democratic Rep. Laura Terech announced she wouldn’t run for reelection.
This area has long been a battleground between Republicans and Democrats, and voters here have shown they like having one of each representing them in the House.
Republican Pamela Carter and Democrat Karen Gresham are not complete unknowns. Gresham is a retired CPA who serves on the Madison Elementary School District’s governing board. Before running for office, Carter ran a sports medicine business and hosted a TV program called “Get in shape with Pamela Carter.” She’s also a fourth-generation Arizonan.
While anything could happen in this truly competitive district, we’re taking the safe bet that the incumbent (and former incumbent) win.
Fun fact about Kelli Butler: She has excellent taste in newsletters.
LD9: Mendoza & Barber vs. Austin & Blattman
Rating: No Change
Currently: Two Democratic seats
In the last election cycle, Democrats swept this Republican-leaning legislative district covering west Mesa. But just barely.
This year, Republicans again selected Mary Ann Mendoza to run for the office. She’s an “angel mom” whose son was killed by a drunk driver who was an undocumented immigrant. She was also bounced from the 2020 Republican National Convention speaking lineup after tweeting anti-Semitic QAnon junk, and she came in fourth place in the four-person race in 2022.
But for the other slot, Republicans nominated Kylie Barber, a political newcomer whose focus is education.
She may fare better than last election’s top vote-getting Republican, Kathy Pearce (the sister of the late former Senate President Russell Pearce, who was recalled after authoring the anti-immigrant bill SB1070 in 2010).
However, considering Barber is facing two strong Democratic incumbents in Reps. Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman, we’re calling this a No Change district.
LD13: Weninger & Willoughby vs. Gonzales & Reese
Rating: Potential Pickup for Republicans
Currently: Split district
Republican Jeff Weninger served eight years on the Chandler City Council before representing this Chandler-based legislative district for eight years ending in 2022. Now, he’s trying to return to the Capitol alongside Julie Willoughby, who was appointed to the House after the area’s previous lawmaker, Republican Liz Harris, was expelled last year for facilitating wild and unfounded accusations about her colleagues.
Currently, this is a split district. But Democratic Rep. Jennifer Pawlik isn’t running for reelection.
That means the two Democrats who are running, forensic scientist Brandy Reese and entrepreneur Nicholas Gonzales, are starting from scratch — with little name ID against the quasi-incumbents.
In a wave year, this district could go either way. But as of today, we’re calling it a Potential Pickup for Republicans.
LD16: Martinez & Lopez vs. Seaman
Rating: Potential Pickup for Republicans
Currently: Split District
Interstate 10 runs through the heart of this district, which covers most of central Pinal County.
The area is so red that it’s barely considered competitive for Democrats. But Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman won a seat here two years ago by just a few hundred votes. Now, he’s trying to hold onto that seat.
He’ll face Rep. Teresa Martinez in November, just like he did in a three-way race in 2022. But the rematch won’t be exactly the same. Rob Hudelson won’t be around this time. He barely lost to Chris Lopez in the Republican primary last month.
Lopez might have enough money, and backing, to take the seat back for Republicans. He loaned his campaign $20,000 to get the ball rolling and picked up a dozen or so big donors, along with the political action committees for the Realtors of Arizona, the Greater Phoenix Chamber, and the private-prison company GEO Group.
Seaman should have no shortage of financial support. But considering the demographics of this district, we’re calling it a Potential Pickup for Republicans.
LD17: McGarr & Jones vs. Volk
Rating: Potential Pickup for Democrats
Currently: Two Republican seats
Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones easily beat their only rival, Anna Orth, in the Republican primary in this heavily gerrymandered district that wraps around the Tucson metro area from Saddlebrooke on the north and down to Vail on the southeast side.
McGarr and Jones are both first-term lawmakers and diehard members of the Freedom Caucus. While election skeptics won almost all the GOP primary races, that brand of politics may have taken a hit in this district.
McGarr and Jones just watched their fellow Freedom Caucus member Sen. Justine Wadsack lose her primary to Vince Leach, who cast himself as a traditional conservative to Wadsack’s “weird” (before it became a buzzword among Democrats watching MAGA antics).
Democrats are single-shotting Kevin Volk. He is a small business owner and worked at his family’s large commercial real estate company. This is his first time running for office and he ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Southern Arizona Democrats are pinning their hopes — and a truckload of money — on Volk. He raised $274,000 and didn’t have to spend much of it during the primary season. He has a long list of individual donors, along with financial backing from Swing Left Arizona State Fund and the AEA Fund for Public Education.
We’re going out on a limb here, but if Democrats channel their frustration with Wadsack into the House race instead, we could see this being a Pickup Opportunity district.
LD23: Peña vs. Sandoval & Rosales
Rating: Likely Pickup for Democrats
Currently: Split district
Democrats have a sizable voter registration advantage over Republicans in this U.S.-Mexico border-based district that runs from Yuma to Tucson’s west side.
So it was quite a surprise when Republican Michele Peña won a seat here two years ago. Especially considering she won a write-in race in the 2022 primary to earn her spot on the November ballot.4
But the district, which encompasses the Tohono O’odham Nation reservation and areas of Maricopa and Pinal counties along the way, is really ruled by independents, who make up the largest voting bloc.
Peña is once again the only Republican candidate for the two House seats in this district. And that single-shot strategy will give her a leg up in what is sure to be a difficult reelection race.
On the Democratic side, Democratic Rep. Mariana Sandoval and Matias Rosales advanced to the general election after handily beating James Holmes in the primary.
Sandoval is a paralegal who worked at the Arizona Attorney General’s Office and also served on the Agua Fria High School Board. Rosales works in real estate and serves on the San Luis City Council and numerous local boards.
Based on voter registration alone, this should be a Likely Pickup opportunity for Democrats.
Again, we don’t actually expect to be correct. And we’ll probably update these rankings as the facts on the ground change.
No angry texts before 8 a.m., please.
Also, today’s edition was long, so no Other News.
That is not unheard of in the Yuma area. Former Republican Sen. Don Shooter won his first election in the area the same way. He was later expelled from the Legislature for sexual harassment.
Well done, gang. This gives us a few LDs to keep an eye on.
I see your 7 and I raise you 1 ... while LD27 was rated by the IRC as R +8.9, 2022 AZ House elections went another way, with Fontes winning in the district, Kelly close, and the Dem House candidate coming within less than 4 points with essentially no backing and against well-known opponents. This year the R candidates there are less known, and the D candidate, Deborah Howard, is actively campaigning. I'd say this one should now be considered a swing district. CEBV includes it in their lists, and I do too.