A couple of things this morning: (1) Prop 134 doesn't just require SOME signatures in each district, it requires 10% of voters for initiatives and 15% for amendments. If it's a D-favored measure, there are R-districts where you will never reach those thresholds. And vice versa. And (2) It's highly unlikely that Harris vs Trump has changed here by 10% in a month. The NYT says their margin of error on this poll is +/- 4.4% for each candidate. So just looking at statistical error (not counting other bad guesses), Harris has support between 40 and 50 and Trump has support between 45 and 55 (roughly). So if you had to bet using the NYT poll alone, you'd guess Trump was ahead, but it could easily be the other way around. The 538 polling average currently has Trump ahead here, but only by a point, and that's including the effect of this poll, which may be an outlier. It might be a a jump ball at this point.
A couple of things this morning: (1) Prop 134 doesn't just require SOME signatures in each district, it requires 10% of voters for initiatives and 15% for amendments. If it's a D-favored measure, there are R-districts where you will never reach those thresholds. And vice versa. And (2) It's highly unlikely that Harris vs Trump has changed here by 10% in a month. The NYT says their margin of error on this poll is +/- 4.4% for each candidate. So just looking at statistical error (not counting other bad guesses), Harris has support between 40 and 50 and Trump has support between 45 and 55 (roughly). So if you had to bet using the NYT poll alone, you'd guess Trump was ahead, but it could easily be the other way around. The 538 polling average currently has Trump ahead here, but only by a point, and that's including the effect of this poll, which may be an outlier. It might be a a jump ball at this point.