The hot House and Senate races
Election predictions revisited … Sign theft continues … And skimping on the hors d'oeuvres.
A few months back, we made a series of bold predictions about which candidates would win seats in the state Legislature and whether Democrats could take control of the House or Senate.
If Democrats win just a handful of these dozen or so competitive races, we could see a vastly different Arizona in the coming years.
With a Democratic majority backing her policies, Gov. Katie Hobbs could transform from the “Veto Queen” into a governor with real power to enact laws. A Democratic takeover would vastly increase the scope of issues on the table at the Capitol, from ESA reform, to water management, to housing policy, to budget priorities. If Republicans maintain control, we’ll continue to see the stalemate between the legislative and executive departments that has defined Arizona since we became a split state.
So a lot is riding on a handful of legislative races.
But we made those predictions pretty early in the election cycle, and predictions, much like polls, should be updated regularly.
So today, we’re amending a few of our legislative election predictions and affirming the rest ahead of the November election.
Like everyone else, we’re just trying to avoid looking dumb when we’re wrong on Election Day.
But more than that, this is a chance to challenge you to make your own predictions.
Who do you think will win these races, and why?
We left the comments section open to all subscribers today, so drop us a line!
LD2 Senate
Candidates: Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick1 and Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert
Where is it?: North-central Phoenix, from Thunderbird to State Route 303.
Previous ranking: Leans Democrat, potential pickup for Democrats
New ranking: Toss-up
Reason for the change: Outside groups have spent about three-quarters of a million dollars boosting Bolick and beating up Schwiebert in the last few months.
LD4 Senate
Candidates: Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh and Republican Carine Werner
Where is it?: Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley
Previous rating: Likely Democratic
New rating: Leans Democratic
Reason for change: We still think Marsh will pull it off, but Republican-leaning groups have been spending heavily to knock her out.
LD13 Senate
Candidates: Republican Sen. J.D. Mesnard and Democrat Sharon Winters
Where is it?: Chandler area
Previous rating: Leans Republican
New rating: Likely Republican
Reason for change: As far as we can tell2 no outside groups have bothered to spend money against Mesnard so far this year.
LD13 House
Candidates: Former Republican Rep. Jeff Weninger, Rep. Julie Willoughby3 and Democrats Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales.
Where is it?: Chandler area
Previous rating: Potential pickup for Republicans
New rating: Toss-up, potential split district
Reason for change: We still think longtime Chandler-area Republican politician Weninger will take a seat, but Democrats have been investing a lot of resources into Reese and Gonzales. We wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them slip in, keeping this as one of Arizona’s few split districts.
Our ratings of the rest of the legislative races to watch remain unchanged.
In North Phoenix’s LD2, our best bet is still that the House ends up split with one Democrat and one Republican, as it is today.
In Phoenix’s LD4 House race, we still expect Republican Rep. Matt Gress to pull it off, and for one of the two Democrats, former Rep. Kelli Butler or newcomer Karen Gresham, to win the district’s second House seat.
Our predictions for Mesa’s LD9 staying in Democratic hands seemingly hold up, as progressive groups are spending a lot of resources to ensure the district’s slate of Democratic lawmakers hold off their Republican challengers.
Nothing has changed in LD16 to make us believe that Republican Sen. TJ Shope could lose his Senate seat. Similarly, we’re still not bullish on Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman’s chances of holding onto his House seat in this Republican-leaning district.
We’re still betting on former Republican Sen. Vince Leach to pull off a return to the Capitol via the LD17 Senate race in Pinal and northern Pima County. And we’re still calling the House race in that district a potential pickup for Democrats, who are pointing most of their firepower at Republican Rep. Cory McGarr.
Finally, there’s no good reason a House seat in Yuma County’s LD23 should remain in Republican hands. We’re pretty bullish on Republican Rep. Michele Peña getting bounced and Democrats taking that back to a pure blue district.
They were fixing them: Chandler Vice Mayor OD Harris and his wife could be facing charges for allegedly damaging campaign signs telling people to vote him out and calling him a “DEI hire,” the Republic’s Sam Kmack reports. Harris told Chandler Police he and his wife “went around to fix signs in the community.” He easily won reelection, despite all the suspicious stuff about his past. Meanwhile, a sign war is playing out among Mormons with diverging political affiliations in Mesa, including one resident with a “Republicans for Harris-Walz” in his yard whose neighbor put up a “Cucks for Harris” sign, per the LA Times. Kamala Harris’ campaign recently launched a Latter-day Saints advisory committee in Arizona, and she’s hoping to pick up votes from Mormons straying from the traditionally right-leaning group.
Fun fact: Election-denying election forecaster Seth Keshel, who became Donald Trump’s favorite election predictor because he factors in widespread nonexistent election fraud, predicts Trump will win Arizona. He’s also married to Republican state Rep. Rachel Jones, we learned in this New York Times profile of him. They met while he was testifying about election fraud at the Capitol last year.
Gotta use the money somehow: U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema spent $216,000 of her campaign money on trips to France, Japan and the United Kingdom between July and September, and tacked on $152,000 for security, the Republic’s Ronald J. Hansen reports. Sinema isn’t seeking reelection and isn’t using the money to campaign, but instead ran an amateur marathon at the Paris Olympics and billed $431 for admission to a Washington Nationals baseball game. She still had $5 million by the end of September.
Your subscription won’t fund our Olympic ambitions, but it will help us dive into politicians’ crazy campaign finance reports.
Double duty: Republican Abe Hamadeh still thinks he won the 2022 attorney general’s race and isn’t giving up his legal fight to prove it, even though he’s likely to take CD8’s U.S. House seat, Capitol scribe Howie Fischer writes. Hamadeh’s actively asking the Arizona Supreme Court to find he was improperly denied the ability to discover and provide evidence challenging his 280-vote loss against Kris Mayes, and no one seems to have a clear answer on why Hamadeh’s pursuing a case to prove he’s the rightful state attorney general when he’s set to take a congressional seat.
“Abe is committed to saving his country and doesn’t have the time to wait on certain justices to find their courage,” Erica Knight, Hamadeh’s campaign spokesperson, told Fischer.
Tactical tensions: Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos put his opponent, Lt. Heather Lappin, on administrative leave and asked the FBI and Arizona Attorney General’s Office to investigate her three weeks before the election, per the Green Valley News’ Dan Shearer. Nanos accused Lappin of violating department policy by encouraging officers to hold signs reading “Deputies Don’t Want Nanos” while wearing gear that looked like their uniforms over the weekend. He also accused her of giving Arizona Luminaria journalist John Washington interviews with inmates and access to their accounts so he could deposit funds. The Luminaria issued a statement saying it “does not and would never pay for sources, interviews or information.”4
Horsepower: A Navajo grassroots organizer is taking 100 Indigenous voters to Arizona’s polls on horseback this Election Day to increase historically low Native American turnout, per the Guardian. Allie Young started the Ride to the Polls campaign in 2020 to promote getting COVID-19 relief to the heavily hit Navajo Nation, and actor Mark Ruffalo joined the campaign and other members of the Diné to walk three miles to a ballot drop box last Saturday. Meanwhile, the largest community on Navajo Nation tribal lands in Tuba City still suffers from widespread poverty and a lack of basic services despite the thriving of neighboring communities. Millions of federal pandemic relief funds are intended to boost commercial development there, but Native American communities don’t see significant returns because of federal red tape that gives ownership of tribal lands to the federal government and prevents them from issuing bonds, per The New York Times.
In 2022, the Arizona Republican Party spent more than $325,000 on an extravagant election night party, including $3,348 on balloons that never dropped to celebrate Kari Lake’s victory.
This year?
Bolick was appointed to the seat after losing a Republican primary for secretary of state in 2022.
Arizona’s campaign finance reporting system is absolute garbage, so we’re never fully confident when reporting a shocking statistic based on its data.
Willoughby was appointed to the seat after Republican Rep. Liz Harris was expelled.
In case it needs to be said, paying sources for info is not something most journalism outfits do, aside from tabloids, perhaps.
Per intern: all hats and no cattle.
Not so bold on the comments today, readers? I swear when we published the first round of predictions I got 50 emails about how wrong I was.