A few comments about the two pollsters referred to here. While 538 rates Trafalgar Group as a good poll (A- in their ranking), they also view them as having a significant R bias. These two aspects are not actually contradictory - basically, it says that once you make the adjustment, the resulting numbers are pretty good, and the methodology overall is regarded well. For example, for a recent Biden poll, 538 adjusted the Trafalgar number for favorable/unfavorable from 39/55 to 41/52. Not to say that this precisely carries over to the Kelly/Masters or Fontes/Finchem races, but it is likely that the reality is shifted towards D compared to the Trafalgar results. Of course, all of this has the limitations mentioned in the Agenda: polls are imperfect, and at best capture a snapshot.
I should also add that the OH Predictive poll used a smaller sample, and was done a couple of weeks earlier (significantly before the Time feature on Fontes and other SOS candidates), though 538 thinks it has a smaller systematic bias than Trafalgar.
Basically we have to wait until the "horses" cross the finish line. And in the meanwhile note if they have a firm grip on reality ...
"fawning over Governor Ducey..." Really???? Fawning would be adjectives. Here are the facts:
Under Governor Ducey, Arizona Real Per Capita Personal Income increased by $15,545 (40%) the largest increase of any AZ governor in history.
Arizona Median Household income increased by 35%, the largest increase in recorded history (Census Bureau).
average hourly private sector earnings have increased by 23% (St Louis Federal Reserve Data System).
Arizona Manufacturing Employment, on a decline for years, increased by 27,000.
Total Arizona personal income increased by $148 billion, the largest increase of any governor in our history.
Average Hourly Private Sector Earnings increased by 23%.
Arizona Median Household Income increased by 35%., the largest increase of any Arizona governor.
Arizona Home Values have doubled (Zillow)
Arizona’s ranking for incarcerated juveniles has fallen to 39th, incredible considering our huge population of at-risk children.
The number of housing permits being issued on a monthly basis has more than doubled.
The Arizona unemployment rate of 3.2% (April 2022) was the lowest in recorded history despite Arizona gaining 98,000 in population just in the last year.
Arizona’s GDP rose above $435 billion for the first time in history, up from $235 billion when Ducey started, by far the largest increase of any governor in our history.
In 2020, Arizona’s all-cause death rate ranked 30th in the nation. Don’t listen to Public Health and Media.
The number of AZ college graduates increased by over 600,000 one of the top fifteen states of the country.
Arizona had five of the top 15 growth cities in the nation.
Really unbelievable when you consider all the crap he has taken from the cheap seats.
Especially unbelievable when you consider that he was burdened by Democrat governance of Tucson. A city where only 8% of parents rate their neighborhood an excellent place to raise a child, a city with 380,000 miles of cracks and potholes in 2,450 miles of streets, a city which set an all-time murder record in 2021, a city with the same number of jobs in September 2022 that they had in March of 2007, 17 years ago. In other words, a city with totally dysfunctional government.
That's not even talking about the burden of Tucson Unified School District holding Arizona and Ducey back, one of the worst and most expensive school districts in the state. Only 28% of their parents grade their child's school an "A" while districts such as Chandler are at 72%.
Governor Ducey's performance is especially remarkable when you consider that states such as New York have fewer jobs today than they had five years ago.
I think I've commented this before, but has anyone noticed that 538's model of the AZ Congressional Races are completely out of whack? They have AZ-3, AZ-5, AZ-7, AZ-8, and AZ-9 correct (because they are all safe districts with incumbents, lol). But they list both AZ-1 and AZ-6 as "Likely R," giving the D's less than a 10% chance. While I think it does make sense to favor the Rs in those districts, I don't think it should be 9-1 odds! At the same time, they do list AZ-2 as a toss up. That seems completely backwards! While that district is more competitive than expected, it is still R+7. I have no idea what these forecasts are based on, because they are not in line with the partisanship of the districts, the fundraising, available polling, or the general sentiments of AZ politicos. It makes me wonder how accurate their entire congressional model is. I am fairly sure this is their first time running a model right after redistricting, and I think it may be screwing things up.
A few comments about the two pollsters referred to here. While 538 rates Trafalgar Group as a good poll (A- in their ranking), they also view them as having a significant R bias. These two aspects are not actually contradictory - basically, it says that once you make the adjustment, the resulting numbers are pretty good, and the methodology overall is regarded well. For example, for a recent Biden poll, 538 adjusted the Trafalgar number for favorable/unfavorable from 39/55 to 41/52. Not to say that this precisely carries over to the Kelly/Masters or Fontes/Finchem races, but it is likely that the reality is shifted towards D compared to the Trafalgar results. Of course, all of this has the limitations mentioned in the Agenda: polls are imperfect, and at best capture a snapshot.
I should also add that the OH Predictive poll used a smaller sample, and was done a couple of weeks earlier (significantly before the Time feature on Fontes and other SOS candidates), though 538 thinks it has a smaller systematic bias than Trafalgar.
Basically we have to wait until the "horses" cross the finish line. And in the meanwhile note if they have a firm grip on reality ...
"fawning over Governor Ducey..." Really???? Fawning would be adjectives. Here are the facts:
Under Governor Ducey, Arizona Real Per Capita Personal Income increased by $15,545 (40%) the largest increase of any AZ governor in history.
Arizona Median Household income increased by 35%, the largest increase in recorded history (Census Bureau).
average hourly private sector earnings have increased by 23% (St Louis Federal Reserve Data System).
Arizona Manufacturing Employment, on a decline for years, increased by 27,000.
Total Arizona personal income increased by $148 billion, the largest increase of any governor in our history.
Average Hourly Private Sector Earnings increased by 23%.
Arizona Median Household Income increased by 35%., the largest increase of any Arizona governor.
Arizona Home Values have doubled (Zillow)
Arizona’s ranking for incarcerated juveniles has fallen to 39th, incredible considering our huge population of at-risk children.
The number of housing permits being issued on a monthly basis has more than doubled.
The Arizona unemployment rate of 3.2% (April 2022) was the lowest in recorded history despite Arizona gaining 98,000 in population just in the last year.
Arizona’s GDP rose above $435 billion for the first time in history, up from $235 billion when Ducey started, by far the largest increase of any governor in our history.
In 2020, Arizona’s all-cause death rate ranked 30th in the nation. Don’t listen to Public Health and Media.
The number of AZ college graduates increased by over 600,000 one of the top fifteen states of the country.
Arizona had five of the top 15 growth cities in the nation.
Really unbelievable when you consider all the crap he has taken from the cheap seats.
Especially unbelievable when you consider that he was burdened by Democrat governance of Tucson. A city where only 8% of parents rate their neighborhood an excellent place to raise a child, a city with 380,000 miles of cracks and potholes in 2,450 miles of streets, a city which set an all-time murder record in 2021, a city with the same number of jobs in September 2022 that they had in March of 2007, 17 years ago. In other words, a city with totally dysfunctional government.
That's not even talking about the burden of Tucson Unified School District holding Arizona and Ducey back, one of the worst and most expensive school districts in the state. Only 28% of their parents grade their child's school an "A" while districts such as Chandler are at 72%.
Governor Ducey's performance is especially remarkable when you consider that states such as New York have fewer jobs today than they had five years ago.
I think I've commented this before, but has anyone noticed that 538's model of the AZ Congressional Races are completely out of whack? They have AZ-3, AZ-5, AZ-7, AZ-8, and AZ-9 correct (because they are all safe districts with incumbents, lol). But they list both AZ-1 and AZ-6 as "Likely R," giving the D's less than a 10% chance. While I think it does make sense to favor the Rs in those districts, I don't think it should be 9-1 odds! At the same time, they do list AZ-2 as a toss up. That seems completely backwards! While that district is more competitive than expected, it is still R+7. I have no idea what these forecasts are based on, because they are not in line with the partisanship of the districts, the fundraising, available polling, or the general sentiments of AZ politicos. It makes me wonder how accurate their entire congressional model is. I am fairly sure this is their first time running a model right after redistricting, and I think it may be screwing things up.