November’s forecast

Anyone can do the weather … He can be fair about genocide … And the records allegedly never existed.

The primary election is over and the field is set for November, when Arizona’s legislative races will become “ground zero” for Democrats’ national fight to gain state political power, as Politico put it today. 

With each party’s nominees chosen, we can finally forecast the big races to watch. We’ve always liked Cook Political Report’s nonpartisan ratings of the chances each party has of winning a seat in Congress. 

So today, we’re ripping off Cook and rating the competitive Arizona Senate races as either “Likely” Republican or Democrat, “Leans” Republican or Democratic or a true “Toss-up” race.¹

We’ll rate the competitive House races next week.

According to our art intern, ChatGPT, this is how Arizona political reporters make their election predictions. Not far off!

But beware: Like all political experts, we’re just making this stuff up based on old stats, gut feelings and conversations with other political geeks. 

And we’re only talking about the races on the short list of “competitive” districts. Yet, every year, there’s at least one surprise seat where a Democrat or Republican slips in against the odds. So keep that in mind as we go through the map and math. 

Some context: Right now, Republicans hold 16 of 30 seats in the state Senate. To flip the chamber, Democrats would need to win two seats currently held by Republicans without losing any seats held by Democrats. 

And if our election projections are correct,² the Arizona Senate will be evenly split next year, with Republicans holding 15 seats and Democrats holding the other 15. 

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LD2: Schwiebert v. Bolick 

Rating: Leans Democrat

Currently: A Republican seat

The last time Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick and Democratic Rep. Judy Schwiebert squared off — in the 2020 race for two House seats — they each won one of the district’s seats in the House. But Schwiebert got slightly more votes in the Republican-leaning district.

Bolick was appointed as the district’s senator this year, after running a failed GOP primary campaign for secretary of state in 2022. 

No doubt, Democrats would have been better off if Republican Josh Barnett had won his party’s nomination for the office. 

But we’re keeping this one in the Leans Democrat column because Bolick and her husband, Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, are among the top targets for abortion-rights voters (Bolick’s vote to repeal the 1864 ban notwithstanding).

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LD4: Werner vs. Marsh

Rating: Likely Democrat

Currently: A Democrat seat

Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh has proven time and again she’s a capable, hard-working candidate who can navigate her district’s Republican advantage. In the last two elections, the former teacher of the year defeated two longtime Republican lawmakers: Kate Brophy McGee, and Nancy Barto.

This year, she’ll face Republican Carine Werner, a member of the Scottsdale Unified School District’s Governing Board.

Werner is running on a platform of “common sense” conservatism and issues like increasing school funding and economic growth, rather than the kind of culture war election denialism that has gripped much of her party. That’ll play well in this wealthy central Phoenix district. (Certainly better than the alternative for Republicans, perennial single-issue anti-prison candidate Kenneth Bowers.)

But we’re putting this in the Likely Democratic column because Marsh has faced more formidable Republicans in this Republican-leaning district and won. 

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LD9: Scantlebury vs. Burch

Rating: Likely Democrat

Currently: A Democrat seat

Two years ago, Robert Scantlebury and Eva Burch squared off for this west Mesa district’s Senate seat, and Burch won by about 5 percentage points. 

Republican voters in the district had the opportunity to nominate more moderate Chris Stapley to challenge Burch this year,³ but they opted instead for a rematch between the moderate Democrat and the MAGA Republican. 

Considering we’ve seen this one before, we’re calling this a Likely Democratic race, despite the district’s slight Republican edge. 

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LD13: Winters vs. Mesnard

Rating: Leans Republican

Currently: A Republican seat

Republican Sen. J.D. Mesnard was first elected in 2010, and though the Chandler-based district has been trending blue for years, he has continued to hold onto his seat by narrow margins.

He’s an experienced campaigner and savvy tactician with a well-funded campaign and support from major conservative groups willing to spend to ensure he stays at the Capitol. 

Democrat Sharon Lee Winters is a political newcomer and author. She has about half as much in her campaign coffers as Mesnard, and none of the connections. 

We’d probably put this race in the Likely Republican category, if not for the ongoing demographic changes in the Chandler area pushing it closer to Democrats’ reach. We’re going with Leans Republican.

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LD16: Seaman vs. Shope

Rating: Likely Republican

Currently: A Republican seat

The Shope name rings out in this part of Pinal County, where Tom Shope served as mayor of Coolidge and his son, TJ Shope, has been a Republican lawmaker since 2012. 

But there’s a new family trying to start a political dynasty. 

Shope’s Democratic opponent, Stacey Seaman, is the daughter of Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman, who flipped one of the district’s House seats into Democratic hands in the last election. 

But flipping one open House seat in this Republican-leaning district is an easier task than unseating a longtime incumbent in a head-to-head matchup. 

We’re keeping this in Likely Republican territory. 

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LD17: McLean vs. Leach

Rating: Likely Republican

Currently: A Republican seat

Republican Sen. Justine Wadsack’s loss in the primary to former Republican Sen. Vince Leach was not only a massive blow to Wadsack, but to the Democrats who hoped to plaster the airwaves with her bizarre brand of America First conservatism. 

Leach is the district’s former senator, and his time in the Legislature was mostly spent promoting conservative policies much more in line with his district’s voters — issues like tax cuts, rather than book bans. 

Democrats fielded a strong candidate in John McLean, a political newcomer, business owner and tech entrepreneur. But Leach will be hard to beat in this relatively solid Republican district.

With Wadsack as the nominee, we might have put this in the Leans Democratic column. With Leach running instead, we’re calling it a Likely Republican race. 

Montgomery unswayed: Arizona Supreme Court Justice Bill Montgomery announced he won’t recuse himself from a case that will determine whether voters see the phrase “unborn human being” when they vote on the abortion ballot measure, the Arizona Mirror’s Gloria Rebecca Gomez reports. Montgomery’s decision came after groups backing the Arizona Abortion Access Act asked him to step away from the case, saying the fact that he had previously accused Planned Parenthood of committing “genocide” shows he wouldn’t be impartial. 

One case at a time: An Arizona grand jury showed interest in charging former President Donald Trump and Arizona Republican lawmakers for their role in the fake electors scheme to overturn the 2020 election, but Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes’ office asked them not to, the Republic’s Stacey Barchenger and Elena Santa Cruz report. A recent court filing showed prosecutors were concerned about overlapping state and federal cases against Trump.  

It’s just a little intimidation: The rules that determine what is, or isn’t, voter intimidation at polling places are too broad and could violate free speech rights,  Maricopa County Judge Jennifer Ryan-Touhill ruled. Officials cannot enforce rules against following voters, yelling at them, or wearing intimidating clothing or uniforms until the court issues a final ruling. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said he’d appeal the ruling, Votebeat Arizona’s Jen Fifield reports.  

“And what content printed on a t-shirt might be offensive or harassing to one and not another? What if the t-shirt says, “‘I have a bomb and I intend to vote!’ Where does the Secretary draw the line?” Ryan-Touhill wrote in her ruling. 

$10 a pop: The parking lot at Horseshoe Bend is pretty much an ATM now, 12News’ Kyle Simchuk reports. Too many tourists parking along the nearby highway have made it unsafe, officials said, so they put up barriers and directed tourists to a parking lot, which is owned by the City of Page and costs $10 to use. The fee turned into $20 million for the City of Page and the National Park Service since 2019. But it’s not all a big slush fund, officials say. The money must be spent on visitor facilities, including spending $250,000 a year just to pump the toilets. 

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Not a total loss: Despite Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly not getting picked in the veepstakes, he did win a big prize: His national profile has risen so much in the past few weeks that he could be considered for a top administration post if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the Republic’s Ronald J. Hansen writes.

Machines are good at counting: After a wild couple of years that led to the indictments of two Cochise County supervisors and countless hours of debate about vote tabulating machines, the hand-count of a sampling of ballots in Cochise County was a 100% match of the tallies from vote tabulation machines, the Herald/Review’s Terri Jo Neff reports.

By the skin of his teeth: In one of Arizona’s toss-up districts, Chris Lopez is holding onto his lead over Rob Hudelson in the Republican primary for a state House seat in Legislative District 16, Pinal Central reports. Lopez’s lead had been shrinking since Election Day, but almost all ballots have been counted now and he is up by 223 votes.

Just as Kari Lake debate drama is coming back in season, Arizona State University finally fulfilled our records request from the last debate drama. 

A year ago, we were digging through records about Mi-Ai Parrish, the former Republic publisher turned ASU / Arizona PBS bigwig and her beef with Clean Elections and her myriad political conflicts as both a consultant for major political players and the general manager of our PBS station. 

She insisted she had disclosed all the conflicts on her conflict of interest forms. 

Well, a year later, ASU tells us those forms don’t exist. Cool!

1. Which just means we’re too chicken to rate it.

2. They probably won’t be. And predicting is not the real point here, but rather, to offer a lay of the land.

3. Yes, of the family that Stapley Road is named after.